MDHHS Epidemiologist Discusses COVID-19 Numbers Down in the Black Population, Elsewhere Statewide

There’s a little good news to share right in time for Christmas: COVID-19 case numbers are down in the Black population throughout the state of Michigan. Numbers are also down for other groups across the board, Sarah Lyon-Callo, director of the Bureau of Epidemiology and Population Health at the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services [MDHHS] said during a virtual discussion on Dec. 23 during a MI COVID Response Data Modeling Update. But not so fast, limited indoor gatherings and social distance measures are still protocol.

During the nearly hour-long discussion, Lyon-Callo shared information on COVID-19 data trends across the state, and information on testing, disease trends, outbreaks, hospitalizations, deaths, and the trajectory of the virus in Michigan.

According to information from MDHHS – Michigan Disease Surveillance System, the rate for residents who are Black, American Indian/Alaska Native, Asian/Pacific Islander, and White are plateauing, based on average daily new deaths per million people by race and ethnicity.

“We may be seeing a beginning of a decline,” Lyon-Callo said during her presentation. “We are seeing declines in most age groups, race and ethnicity groups”

Percent positivity has also declined over the last week in overall case rates with now those cases at 10% positivity down 2.3 %  from last week.

Presently, there are 16.5% of available inpatient beds in the state that has COVID-19 patients; that is down from 2% last week.

In terms of testing for COVID-19 the state has dropped to an average of about 48,000-49,000 tests occurring each day.

By county, there are 36 of the 83 counties in the state that are seeing positivity of 10% or more — a reduced number from last week where there were 25 more counties at that level so these are “encouraging signs across the state”  Lyon-Callo said.

Daily case numbers also dropped for the fourth week in a row, however, the current daily case rate is four times the rate they were in early October.

Lyon-Callo added that the number of COVID-19 cases are decreasing for different age groups for the past five weeks. Though, the age group for 30-49-year-olds are still showing the highest case rates per million people.

“The good news is we are seeing a decline among all groups in the population,” Lyon-Callo said.

In comparison across the states as of December 21:

What we see today: 

• Nineteen states are seeing increasing two-week case trends (down vs. 34 last week) 

• Forty-eight states (stable) with significant outbreaks (high/increasing cases, increasing/high positivity increasing/high hospitalizations over two weeks (>100 per million) 

• Nevada, Arizona, Alabama, Pennsylvania, California have the highest per capita hospitalized patient numbers

• Most rapid two-week case growth: CA, TN, ME, HI, GA

“Michigan is showing a continued decline in hospitalizations,”  Lyon-Callo said.

She also said that COVID-19 cases are continuing to decline for more than 29 days now.

Regarding the number of outbreaks that local health departments are working with and investigating, that number is up just a little bit by 1% from the previous week. Also, the number of reported school outbreaks has decreased and gone from 188 to 142 reports for K-12 schools.

For daily hospitalization rates, the percentage is beginning to “curve downward.”

“So all very encouraging signs,” she said of recent statewide trends graphic.

She added that [as of December 18] there were a total of 1,282 outbreaks reported in the last week — up 1% from the previous week. This includes long-term care facilities, k-12 schools, retail, manufacturing/construction sites, healthcare settings, childcare facilities and more.

“There are no new outbreaks reported by local health departments occurring in restaurants and bars over the last week,” she said.

Other good news is that COVID-19-like illnesses have decreased for more than three weeks and is below 6% of emergency department visits. Hospitalizations and ICU visits are also decreasing.

For vaccine data, Lyon-Callo said that the COVID-19 vaccination program enrolled 303 providers in all counties.

She added that it is important to maintain the “gains” from the decrease in the lowered COVID-19 cases by social distancing and staying safe.

“It will be important during this holiday season as well and New Year’s Eve,” Lyon-Callo said. “We’re going to be watching this data throughout the holiday season to determine if we’re going to see any case resurgence.”

For more information or to view the video click here  https://youtu.be/Ux6vfwBJw_8

For more information go to michigan.gov/coronavirus.

For the MI COVID Response Data Modeling Update go here. 

For vaccine data, information can be found at michigan.gov/COVIDVaccine.

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